HOW WE PLAY THE NFL: MONEY MANAGEMENT AND HANDICAPPING METHODOLOGY

I’d be surprised to find any successful handicapper that strictly used one method to analyze both NFL and College Football. The reason that success on Saturdays and Sundays by a handicapper is so rare is because the game is vastly different. While the rules may have only subtle differences, history tells us that the two brands of football are vastly different as viewed through the eyes of a handicapper. This is why it is so important for a gambler looking for a pick service to select one who specializes in the game on which he wants to wager. Why would you go see a urologist for a rotator cuff injury when there are plenty of doctors out there specializing in shoulder or musculoskeletal injuries? You wouldn’t, and this is why the GeekSheet people and I believe that we have put together the perfect service to satisfy all your football cravings this Fall.

Now, saying that a handicapper specializes in college or pro ball, and not the other, rings hollow without some explanation of how their specialty gives them an edge. That is the goal of this article.

The reasons for the differences surround everything from the sheer number of teams (and players) in college versus the NFL to the psychological factors that affect both coaches and players at each level. For me, the key to success in NFL wagering is analyzing the more detailed information we have about a relatively limited number of teams and, in some cases, the situational posture of the game that is being analyzed. While I’m no expert on the college game and would defer to the Geek, it seems to me that raw data and a great statistical model will give you a statistical advantage in games that are not surrounded by an influx of information that can be, and frequently is, unreliable.

My method does not ignore statistics – all of gambling is in its purest form a matter of statistical probablilities. But the statistics that are of greatest value to the NFL handicapper are not those that track team or player performance, but track the finer details of the game, because the oddsmakers understand that the former category are going to drive the direction of the money – and we all know that the goal of the sportsbook is to get even money on both sides of the line.

So what are these finer details? Many of them will be discussed throughout the course of the season, but for the sake of giving readers an idea of what we look at, I will throw out some examples. First and foremost, handicapping the NFL, I believe, begins with a look at the teams’ depth charts and identifying mismatches. Nowhere is a mismatch more important than on the offensive and defensive lines. My analysis starts there. What happens when there is a tall lean rookie stepping in as a starter against a team (maybe even a huge underdog) that sports a veteran bull-rushing defensive end? The quarterback spends some time on his back. When he’s not on his back, he’s probably handing the ball to a running back. But what if that’s not their style? An example of this came last year when King Dunlap stepped in at left tackle in primetime for the Eagles and gave up three sacks against the winless 49ers. This was an identifiable mismatch that many people miss. Another example occurred in the Falcons-Packers game in the first round of the playoffs last year. Todd McClure, the Falcons center – and generally thought of as a good one – had the duty of handling BJ Raji. What happenned? McClure was stepping on Matt Ryan’s feet before he could complete a five-step drop. The Falcons were at home, had tons of momentum, and had a passing attack that was clicking. They went home after that game and haven’t stepped on the field in real competition yet. Another example is a team with a dominant pass rusher that faces a team that runs a lot of empty backfield sets. Guess what? The offensive team that likes to spread out with an empty backfield is probably going to have to keep a back in the backfield to chip the pass rushing end or provide blitz support against an aggressive defensive scheme. You get the idea. You have to look at individual matchup situations in order to be successful.

After my matchup analysis, I usually do turn to statistics, but these statistics are focused much more on the style of the team, the situation that a given team is playing in, the momentum they take into the game, the motivation of the team (revenge? divisional game?), the scheduling of the game (after a bye week? 2nd off a bye? 3rd off a bye?), the weather, etc. Believe it or not, all of these examples, and many more, have been quantified and compiled over time for reference and manipulation based on the scenario at hand. There are many, many more, but these are just a few of the more common examples. You may have used a handicapping tool that gives you trend after trend – but which ones are logically and/or statistically significant? I believe that over the years I have developed to identify those that will play the role and may be significant as a predictor of a given game’s outcome. Take those trends or angles, identify the matchup advantages (or disadvantages – both of which may sometimes make a particular trend relevant) and, if the outcomes align, you have a play. This, in a nutshell, is how I handicap, and it has proven to be quite successful.

I would not want to give this introduction without a word on money management. First, I believe that everyone should have a bankroll in mind that, if depleted, marks the end of the “gambling season.” Usually, you have a dollar figure that you feel comfortable betting on any given day. I have one, and I generally do not deviate from it except in very extreme circumstances. You may note from my record last year that I was 5-0 on “multi-unit plays.” Last year, I identified five games that in every which way I could analyzed the game, the probability of a certain outcome was the same. Thus, I produced double, triple, and one quad play, which you can figure out on your own…. (for the slow ones, that’s a multiple of your ordinary bet that I talked about above). Fortunately, we won all of those, so my backers made a great deal of money in this situation to go along with the lesser profits (but still good profits) made in wagering on the majority of my recommended plays. Over the years, I have had made more plays multi-unit plays than I did last year, so if you’re into statistics and probablities like I am, you can bet that my service will have more than that this year.

To conclude, what you can expect from me each week is a solid package of anywhere from 3 – 6 games (usually 4 or 5) that I recommend you wager upon (for entertainment purposes only). With them, I will concisely tell you why I like them, referencing the above match-up situations and significant trends or statistics, as well as a recommendation as to whether the game should be an “ordinary” wager or a double, triple, or quad wager…. who knows, I may find one so strong that I go beyond that and recommend a greater multiple. However, one thing you will NOT get, is the Guru’s AFC East – NFC South – Thursday Night Interconference Game of the Decade. None of that nonsense here. Good luck, and I hope you come along for the ride this year!

The Guru