We have released our 6 Recommended plays for the weekend. We have a #1 Recommended Play. We usually only have about four per year, so it’s a pretty HUGE play.
Sign up and get them all. If it doesn’t hit, you get next week free. Boosh.
WE HAVE OUR FIRST #1 PLAY OF THE YEAR
THE GURU IS FEELING GENEROUS…. AN EARLY RECOMMENDED PLAY FOR EVERYONE. ABSOLUTELY FREE. IF IT LOSES, NEXT WEEK IS ON US.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
We’ve decided this week to give everyone a little taste of the action and the information that you will get when you become a member at thegeeksheetsports.com. So, for those of you who haven’t found room on the bandwagon, this is the type of information that I usually send to my full-time members as soon as news breaks on a game I have my eye on.
We learned this morning that cornerback Antoine Winfield is likely out of the game for the Minnesota Vikings with the neck injury he sustained on Sunday trying to bring down Dexter McCluster. With Winfield reportedly coming off the practice field yesterday with what we hear is a more serious neck injury than first anticipated, the Vikings will be shorthanded to stop one of the most balanced yet potentially explosive offenses in the league. After this week’s matchup against the Cards, the Vikings go to Soldier Field next Sunday Night, making holding Winfield out a wise choice. And we firmly our of the opinion that he will not play against Arizona, who we’ve liked quite a bit all year, and who gets their bye week after this game in Minnesota.
The Cardinals play in a small market and are vastly undervalued by many NFL bettors. The fact of the matter is, they have a very good coach on the sidelines that can motivate his currently underachieving 1-3 team to believe that they are in the thick of this year’s NFC race. Importantly, the big part of Arizona’s offense relies on using the playmaking ability of receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet. That could mean trouble for the Minnesota defense, which is already undermanned from a size perspective against Arizona’s Offensive Line. The Antoine Winfield news will make this one bounce around and below the three point line the oddsmakers had set, with the Vikings being the favorite at home. As this is being written, we are seeing the -3 down to only a -105 lay if you’re betting the Vikings. For this reason, I recommend that all we go ahead and get 50% of our ordinary wager on Arizona.
Worried about Adrian Peterson? Have you looked at Arizona’s defensive depth chart??!! As one of my favorite teams all year long, we have been dead-on in our analysis of the Cardinals games. Last week, the ball didn’t bounce are way, with the Cards squandering an easy 10-pt lead with 5 minutes to go as a small dog to the Giants. But we expect this week the Cards will get their pay back. I love this Arizona defense that is loaded with headhunters, including stud rookie Patrick Peterson. Oh, and by the way, Arizona fills a situational trend here that has been 27-3 over the last thirty games. But more about that later in the week…..
This week, I wanted to invite all visitors of the GeekSheet to get an early look at one of my recommended plays that I typically only give to paying members. And, I wanted to do it before the price got to steep. Take Arizona +3 Now for 50% of your base wager and stay tuned. Good luck to you and I hope that we can bring you many more winners on Saturday and Sunday this weekend.
The guru
Site email issues
Hey Guys,
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Week 5 CFB Recap
It was a pretty good week going 63% (5-3) on our recommended plays (in addition to 3-1 on our free plays!!!). If you are keeping count at home, that is WINNING MONEY 80% of the weeks so far!!! It really could have been a lot better, as two of the three losses (Illinois and Arkansas St) really should have been winners. Such is life, on to the recap!
Northwestern @ Illinois (-9) – Illinois #3 Play
GSS Predicts: Illinois 32 NW 17 (Actual: Illinois 38 NW 35) Loss
Illinois outgained NW 473-329 (we projected 532-283 margin). In addition to being pretty accurate with the production, we were also right on with the yppl (6.8-4.9yppl edge for Illinois compared to a projected edge of 7.0-4.3yppl). Illinois had a 1st quarter INT from the 1 yards line (after driving 71 yards) that erased 3-7 points, and two separate fumbles each of which set up NW on a 35 yard field (converted both into TD). After reviewing the stats and drive logs it is pretty clear to us were on the right side of this game and just got a little unlucky.
Texas Tech (-6.5) @ Kansas – TTU is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: TTU 45 KU 29 (Actual: TTU 45 KU 34) Win
Not only did we nail the score but also called for a TTU production edge of 558-427 (compared to an actual of 530-478). This was a Solid Win all around.
Northern Illinois (-8.5) @ Central Michigan – NIU is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: NIU 45 – CMU 24 (Actual: NIU 41 CMU 48) Loss
This was the one game of the week we really missed; as we were way off on the CMU production (563yds @ 9.4yppl was well higher than our projection of 377@ 5.1).
UNC (-6) @ ECU – UNC is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: UNC 37 ECU 24 (Actual: UNC 35 ECU 20) Win
This was another one that we really nailed the score, but were a little off on the production. We pretty accurately covered UNC with a projection of 454 yds @ 6.9yppl (compared to actual of 456 @ 7.6), but undershot ECU some (projection of 348 @ 4.9yppl compared to actual of 490@ 6.2). Most of that was in the form of a couple 1st half ECU TOs, but given some of the bad breaks the 1st couple weeks (we haven’t been on the beneficiary side of a close win/close loss/Turnover luck game yet). Also after reviewing the production advantages we were clearly on the right side.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-9.5) – Wisconsin is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: Wisc 38 Neb 23 (Actual: Wisc 48 Neb 17) Win
We are pretty happy with this one, and it is always nice when you nail the production to the yard (we projected 486 yds for Wisconsin which is exactly what they gained!), we had them at 7.1 yppl compared to the 6.9 actual, which is pretty amazing all things considered. We projected 306 yds @ 5.1yppl for Nebraska compared to an actual of 335 @ 5.2, which is unbelievably close as well.
Arkansas State (-12.5) @ WKU – ASU is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: ASU 35 WKU 13 (Actual: ASU 26 WKU 22) Loss
ASU outgained WKU by a 444-321 margin (we called for 419-301), so from a production perspective the game went about like we thought it would. What killed us were two ASU drives that ended on the 1 yard line with two missed FGs. Add to that another drive that ended in the redzone with a missed FG and you have worse case 9 points left on the field, and in a more normal outcome distribution probably 17 (two TDs on the 1 yard line possessions and a FG on the one that ended in the redzone). That happens from time to time, but after reviewing the statistics and drive logs feel very confident we were on the right side.
Utah State (+7.5) @ BYU- Utah State is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: UtSt 28 BYU 23 (Actual: 24 BYU 27) Win
We made a point to note that we thought there was very good support for a Utah State straight up win, and given the odds the ML were implying a money line play was probably warranted. Up 24-13 midway through the 4th and we felt pretty good about that…up 4pts with the ball and 4:00 mins left in the game we felt really good about it…one 3 and out later, and a punt leaving BYU a 96 yard field and 2:30 left and we were feeling better…down to 1:00 and 65 yards left and we were feeling much better…well the last minute, not so much… Very solid win for GSS with UtSt +7.5, but was one we really thought they would win SU, and was as close as you can get to having that occur.
Mississippi State @ UGA (-6.5) – UGA is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: UGA 37 MSU 23 (Actual: UGA 24 MSU 10) Win
It certainly wasn’t a pretty game, with 6 combined TOs, but in the end actually evened out to slightly favoring Miss St. UGA threw a pick 6 and had another TO on downs after getting the ball on the Miss St 13 via a MSU TO. MSU squandered a UGA TO that set them up on the 28 by throwing a pick to UGA, which UGA returned the favor later in the game by managing only a FG after a MSU TO set them up on the 15. UGA was in total control the entire game and the pick 6 in the 4th made this seem a little closer than it otherwise was. All in all was a little bizarre, but clearly on the right side and was a solid W.
We are getting dialed in and can’t wait til this set of games this weekend. As the season progresses, lines WILL get tighter. Don’t miss this opportunity to maximize your winning by staying AHEAD of Vegas. The Geek is about to tear it up in the coming weeks so SIGN UP NOW!
~The Geek
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