It was a good week 3 at GSS going 4-2 overall (3-2 on our recommended plays), including near upsets by a couple TD dogs (Hawaii and MTSU) as well as an outright win by Mississippi State as a 9 pt Dog (which we called for 1 out of 3 times). We are certainly not one to complain about a winning week, but it could have been better as we got a little unlucky in the BG game. Marshall ripped off a 1 play 80 yard rush, followed by a BG fumble on their 1st possession (after the kick off) setting Marshall up on BGs 17 (led to a FG). BG totaled 393 yds offense (4.8 yppl which is exactly what we projected), which is near impossible to equate to only 10 pts. That is a Yards per point (yppt) ratio of 39:1…the national average is closer to 15:1 (which would have yielded closer to 24-28 pts). Marshall totaled only 346 yards, if you remove the 80 yard run they totaled only 266 yards (which based on 57 total plays (less the 1 big hitter) yielded 4.67 yppl (we projected 4.7 yppl). Given all this, these teams performed nearly identical to what we expected, and on the average should have yielded a score closer to what we projected. We’ll take some solace in that we were correct in 5 of the 6 games this week (GT being the one we were just wrong on), which for this early on is very encouraging.
Week 4 starts a very exciting time for us as we’ll have 3 meaningful games of data for about 50% of all the teams, and 2 games of meaningful data for nearly every team. We are pretty upfront about the particular challenges our methods face early in the year because of the lack of data from this years team (and as such a heavy reliance on modifications to last year’s performance based on our perception of the impacts the losses will have). That said, we are pretty pleased to enter the meat of the season 9-10 overall. One month in we have adjusted our price for the season, why not save some coin and sign up for the rest of the season? We’ve averaged around 105-135 recommend plays a year (average of about 8/wk from week 4 on), so at $385 that equates to only $3 or $4 bucks per play!! With a 5 year record of 63% that is one heck of a deal no matter what your bankroll is or the size of your average play.
We have a 4 RECOMMENDED play for the weekend. We have released the GeekSheets in the members area.
Last year in week 3 we were 4-1. As most of you know, our models really start to crank up as the season goes on, and we are seeing some excellent mathematical matchups this weekend!
We also have a FREE GeekSheet on the Boise State vs Fresno State game TONIGHT. Make sure you sign up above for that play!
Sign up now, to get in on the action.
218-127-7 lifetime record (Since 2005), 63% Lifetime!!!!
Wanted to let you all know things are looking pretty good this week. It looks like we‘ll have a couple recommended plays for this upcoming week. We might have a play on Thursday nights GT-Miami game so be sure to check back later this week.
It was a pretty rough day, going 0-2 on our recommended plays with tough losses on Utah and Oregon State. A loss is a loss, but upon further inspection it wasn’t as bad as one might think. Utah outgained SJSU 499-291 (we called for a 400-266 advantage), but suffered some horrible luck. In the 1st half alone Utah coughed it up twice, missed 2 FGs, and turned it over on downs when they failed to punch it in the endzone on 4th and goal at the 1. Utah won by 10 (as a 13.5 pt), so any one of those 5 things (in the 1st half alone) would have pushed us over the number.
Oregon State looked pretty good leading 20-3 late in the 3rd quarter, before giving up two 4th quarter TDs to barely escape with the victory. OSU’s defense allowed only 310 yards (we projected 353) and allowed 30% of those in two drives (13 plays) in the 4th quarter, protecting a 3 score lead.
The Free plays didn’t suffer any better luck. Stanford (as 3 pt dog) was up 17 at the half, missed a 3Q FG, and allowed Wake to march 92 yards with 4 minutes to go in the game to score the go ahead TD (with the game tied) with 2 seconds left in the game on a 3rd and 1 and a 7 pt win. Missouri & Tennessee combined to surrender 6 TOs (1-6 TO margin), which is what ultimately sunk us in those games.
So on a day we went 0-2 on our recommended plays (0-5 overall), we certainly should have been 1-1 (Utah), and probably should have been 2-0. I’ve gone back thru both those games this morning and am certain we made the right decisions. We don’t recommend playing the Free Plays, but even those should have been no worse than 1-2 (Stanford), and with any luck probably should have been 2-1 (Missouri).
We’ll take some consolation in the fact we made the right decisions, and know that over the course of a season this sort of luck should even itself out (meaning we should get bailed out on a couple games thru the course of the year based on the flip side of the back luck outlined above). We are still 3-5 on our Recommended Play which for the 1st two weeks isn’t all bad. Our math system doesn’t really hit its stride until week 4, and we’ve been pretty upfront about the challenges handicapping the 1st couple weeks. We’ve already put this behind us and are moving to next week. The good news is that we learned a lot about over half the teams as we now have two meaningful games (ignoring 1-AA games) to start working on next week.
