I’ve said for a long time that there is nothing harder to handicap than the first few weeks of the NFL season. Add to that a lockout shortened preseason, the new kickoff rule, and a crazy free agency period that went up to – and through – week one, a buckshot approach and a whole lot of luck was about the only way to stack up some wins.We’re confident now that things have begun to settle in, as our usual methodology paid off in a HUGE way to sweep our four play card and even up our season record at 13-13 against the spread.

(Verified by www.capperswatchdog.com , take a look).

Now is when the fun begins, because all of the data we need to win is in place, and the unknowns have been replaced with reasonable and concrete estimations that, as we saw this week, really work. Last year, I rattled off winners at a clip of 64% in the second half of the football season (www.sundayguru.com), and had a substantial ROI figure with 5 straight multi-unit winners and zero losers, including a TRIPLE play (3x Normal wager) and a QUAD play (4x Normal wager) thrown in the mix. I have never been afraid to confess that the first half of the NFL season – especially the first four weeks – is infinitely harder to handicap than the second half or final 10-11 weeks. Each year, its around this time that we really get the train rolling and don’t look back.

Week Six was that week, and I am confident we are on our way to our most profitable NFL season yet. My new statistical models on top of the ones I’ve used for years are going to blow up the NFL from here forward. GET IN AND GET GEEKED with the GURU on SUNDAY.  On to the game recaps….

Tampa Bay 26 New Orleans 20 (Spread Margin: +13)
Tampa Bay fought hard at home as expected against the Saints and played solid defensively as has begun their custom at home. The lack of a Saints running game was indeed the death knell for the quick strike offense that struggles on the road and can’t “run first.” The Saints offense traditionally hasn’t needed to employ that style, but with their defense struggling this year, a one-dimensional offense is not a good thing, I don’t care who your quarterback and receivers are. Tampa matched up perfectly with New Orleans and came away with the straight up win.

Green Bay 24 St. Louis 3 (Spread Margin +6.5/7)
Green Bay dominated as usual despite probably not firing on all cylinders mentally against the winless Rams. While the number was high, much higher than I normally care to lay, this game pitted my bet-against team versus my bet-on team all year, and I wasn’t going to let that scare me off. Add to that some impressive situational trends, this play
was a no-brainer, and the Pack gave it more than enough to give us a comfortable ATS win.

New England 20 Dallas 16 (Spread Margin: +3)
Dallas was the darling team all week, with the defense talking smack and coming off a bye. Of the four plays, I had the most hesitancy of recommending Dallas initially. It seemed like a classic public play letdown. But there is always SOMETHING you can find to like about the opposition to a public play …. or not to like about the public side. For me, the latter was in play a bit (Tony Romo – he already killed us two weeks ago with 3 4Q picks), but the bottom line was that the Dallas defense was too quick and talented to let Brady go off and especially after they had an extra week to study. Add to that the overwhelming historical data we had on this matchup and it couldn’t have been a stronger play (save Romo not being the starting QB … a little sarcasm there).

Baltimore 29 Houston 14 (Spread Margin: +7.5)
Baltimore cruised just like we thought, coming off the bye and playing a Houston team that was hurting. Baltimore brought a lot of momentum into this game and it did not stop after the bye week, which has traditionally benefitted this squad and its fantastic leadership. This game was a huge matchup problem for Houston on both sides of the
ball. Houston is at its best when they can establish the run game and go up top to Andre Johnson out of play action. With Andre out and the Baltimore Defense keying on the run game, this too was an easy winner. Here again, our fundamental (match-up) analysis and technical analysis pointed only one way. I really just hoped we’d be able to keep the -7 and most of you probably did, but we put it up at -7.5 anyway and never sweated this one.

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