College Football Handicapping | The Geek Sheet Sports

CFB Week 2 Recap – Hate to say we told you so…

September 11, 2011 3:46 pm
Filed under: Announcements,College Football Handicapping

..Wait who are we kidding, we don’t hate it at all! We said we were winning this week and that’s just what we did! It was a VERY good week #2 at TheGeekSheetSports going 7-3 on our recommended plays!

The reality is that it should have been a lot better, and we were really dialed in to nearly every game. Below is our weekly recap, we are excited about the W-L record, but honestly, more excited about how dialed in we were on production and point projections for nearly every game.

We are usually pretty close on a couple games a week, but almost always blow one or two (even if we win some we should have lost and lose some we should have won), but to be this dialed in across the board this early in the season is very exciting, particularly given the work we did in the offseason to improve our predictions in the early weeks. On to the recap…

Oregon State +21 @ Wisconsin
GSS #4 Recommended Play = Oregon State +21
(GSS Call: Wisc 35-OSU 23) Actual Score: Wisc 35 – OSU 0
A loss in the record books, but pretty happy with our analysis as we called for Wisc to gain 413yds (actual=397) @ 6.2yppl (actual=6.2yppl) for 35 pts, so had Wisc pretty dead on with what actually happened. We were also pretty solid in our assessment for OSU, calling for OSU to gain 311yds (actual=284) and at 5yppl (actual=4.4yppl). Unfortunately none of that turned into points, and a loss is a loss, but after review, we are happy with the call.

Mississippi State -6 @ Auburn
GSS #2/3 Recommend Play = Auburn -6
(GSS call: Auburn 42 MSU 27) Actual Score: Auburn 41 – MSU 34
We were all over this and nearly had the score called perfectly if not for the late heroics by MSU. We also advised a ML play on Auburn which hit as well!

Hawaii +5.5 @ Washington
GSS #2 Recommended Play = Hawaii +5.5
(GSS call: Hawaii 33 Wash 25) Actual Score: Hawaii 32 Wash 40
We really should have covered this one, considering the comedy of errors in the 4th quarter it took for us to not cover:
1.Hawaii goes for 2pt conversion after scoring early in the 4th to pull it within 5 (26-31) and does not convert.
2.Hawaii driving late in the 4th throws a pick at around the 50.
3.Hawaii scores with 1 minute to play to pull within 6 (32-38). The PAT (which would have pulled us to 33-38 for a nice back door cover) is blocked…not only blocked but returned for 2pts to put the final at 32-40.

We were a little off in our assessment of Washington, but definitely had our shots and in all reality probably should have got the W here.

TCU pk @ Air Force
GSS #3 Recommended Play = TCU pk
(GSS call: TCU 35 AF 22) Actual Score: TCU 35 AF 19
This one was never really in doubt, and our call vs the actual was pretty damn scary (35-22 vs 35-19).

NCSU -1 @ Wake
GSS #4 Recommended Play = NCSU -1
(GSS call: NCSU 34 Wake 20) Actual Score: NCSU 27 Wake 34
This was probably our worst call of the week, not bad when you consider we still had a shot late. We really missed the boat on how productive Wake would be in this game (437yds actual @ 6.2yppl vs our forecast of 261yds @ 4.3yppl). Being early in the season, this will happen, as we are dealing with limited information, but all in all even for the worse call of the day this wasn’t that bad.

Purdue -1 @ Rice
GSS #3 Recommended Play = Rice +1
(GSS call: Rice 28 Purdue 21) Actual Score: Rice 24 Purdue 22
We pegged Purdue as a troubled team LW with a W as well as Rice as an underrated team LW (vs Texas) and felt very good with how accurate we were in week 1 with both those teams, so we were really looking forward to this one as we were very confident in our predictions. 28-21 v 24-22 reinforces that.

Temple – 15 @ Akron
GSS #4 Recommended Play = Temple -15
(GSS call: Temple 35 Akron 12) Actual Score: Temple 41 Akron 3
Another one where we were scary accurate in our predictions, we also had Temple @ 438yds(6.4yppl) vs an actual of 442yds @ 6.5yppl compared to our predictions for Akron (227yds @ 3.9yppl) and actual of 279ypds @4.5yppl. All around, we were pretty happy with this call.

BYU+7 @ Texas
GSS #4 Recommended Play = BYU +7
(GSS Call: BYU 23 Texas 18) Actual Score: BYU 16 Texas 17
BYU had some chances late for the go ahead score which would have put us dead on this one, but one shouldn’t be selfish I suppose. We were pretty dead on in the projections for Texas (250yds vs 287yds for Texas), but missed it a little on BYU (360 vs 234). Still pretty solid call, particularly given we were against Texas LW, and lost, but mostly to some bad luck, and had the UT offense pegged as a pretty bad unit, something we will be able to (hopefully) continue to exploit this year.

Utah +9 @ USC
GSS #4 Recommended Play = Utah +9
(GSS call: Utah 25 USC 26) Actual Score: Utah 14 USC 17 (when I turned it off), later changed by PAC 12 commissioner to USC 23
Well this one was the most bizarre game I have witnessed in a very long time. Utah driving late in the 4th (down 14-17) appears to convert a 4th and 10 getting close to FG range (like 24 seconds left) only to get a terrible spot and an apparent TO on downs. Ref’s review the play, overturn it, and 1st & 10 Utah…we said this was a pretty good spot for a ML play as we felt Utah had a good chance for the SU W, and so was starting to get pretty excited…a couple bums plays and they rush out the FG team for the attempt to send to OT. FG gets blocked as time expires and returned by USC, but USC players storm the field, so referees throw a flag (and I guess blow play dead, not really sure). Ref’s say game over 14-17…

Flip over to see SJSU in total control and go to bed a pretty happy camper feeling good about a 7-3 week. Wake up to check the SJSU score, as I expected 27-17 UCLA (vs our call of 34-20), and then just happen to notice the USC score has been changed to 23-14…google search later and I find out the Pac 12 commissioner review the game and determined the ref should not have blown the play dead (or not allowed the TD on the FG block return) even thought the entire USC team had stormed the field and changes the score of the game after the fact to 23-14, leaving us with a Push.

This is no lie; I couldn’t make this up if I try. In our minds this was a W. Regardless of what the record books will show, this was a total hose job. We had Utah @ 325 (vs 347 actual) and USC @ 345 (vs 416 actual), so were pretty dead on across the board.

Most Vegas books are honoring the Utah +9 cover as the score was Utah 14 USC 17 when the game ended, including some of The Geeks biggest partners. Cappers Watchdog has this as a cover, and as such, we are counting this as a W. Larry Scott must have had the Trojans!

SJSU +21.5 @ UCLA
GSS #4 Recommended Play = SJSU +21.5
(GSS Call: SJSU 20 UCLA 34) Actual Score: SJSU 17 UCLA 27
As mentioned above we nailed this, called for 373 for SJSU (317 Actual) and 455 for UCLA (417 actual), and SJSU probably would have gotten to our projection had they not had to rely on a 3rd string QB for most of the 2nd half. Still solid W and nice end to GREAT week.

We said it last week but it cant be stressed enough. As the season progresses, lines WILL get tighter. Don’t miss this opportunity to maximize your winning by staying AHEAD of Vegas. Historically the Geek absolutely tears it up in weeks 3 & 4 (72%!!! & 79%!!!) so SIGN UP NOW!

~The Geek

FOUR RECOMMENDED PLAYS FOR SUNDAY. ONE RECOMMENDED PLAY FOR MONDAY.

September 10, 2011 8:07 pm
Filed under: Announcements,College Football Handicapping,NFL PICKS,Sports Investing,Sunday NFL Guru

First, I am feeling very good about the card Sunday. I have been studying the dynamics of weeks 1 through 4 throughout the offseason and have identified some keys that I think play into several of those. Another is just a plain mis-match across the board. With that said, a word about the timing of my releases….

Week One is a really busy time at all of the Vegas sportsbooks and offshore sportsbooks. Amateur wagers are getting down with a fresh bankroll that will be devoured in a matter of weeks. Most of this is due to the lack of attention to detail and/or reliance on mis-information. Most importantly, followers of the NFL game know that the League mandates the release of injury information and monitors it for accuracy (and its supposed to do that in an unbiased manner, which it really does not). A 46-man roster (w/ no “free” 3rd QB this year) becomes public 90 minutes before kickoff. Because of this, it is difficult to confidently wager before that 90 minute window mark has been crossed. There are always situations in which a player reportedly said to be out and likely inactive is not on the inactives list submitted by the team. Or, the inverse of that situation may happen. If its a key player, it may cause me to take a play down. I used to wait until all of this information was at hand. However, I have decided on a new approach that I think makes sense. If such a situation arises (usually happens a few times a year), I will send out a tweet noting the change on my card. My twitter name is @SundayGuru. For those of you who do not utilize twitter, please check back on the site as frequently as possible. We will try to email you any such changes, but the best bet is twitter. You can also follow my thoughts on any drastic line movements (which are more pronounced in week one of the NFL than in any other sport because the lines have been up, wiseguy money came in long ago, and public money has enough force to move the spread to create middle opportunities for the wiseguys). I want to do things this way rather than waiting until after 11:30 so you guys that have commitments on Sunday morning can get your NFL business done as your schedule permits.

The Guru

Sign up and email me that you want a free week and it’s yours. It’s only 22 bucks. Sheesh.

10 RECOMMENDED PLAYS RELEASED

September 9, 2011 5:17 pm
Filed under: College Football Handicapping,Sports Investing

THIS IS THE MOST RECOMMENDED PLAYS THAT WE’VE EVER RELEASED IN WEEK 2. EVER. WE ALMOST HAD 15 GAMES THAT WE WERE GOING TO PLAY. THIS IS THE BEST LOOKING 2ND WEEK CARD THAT WE’VE EVER SEEN.

SIGN UP AND IF WE DON’T HAVE A WINNING WEEK, THEN NEXT WEEK IS ON ME.

Sign up for a combo package for a sweet discount and to win on Sunday as well.

~The Geek

College Football – The Geek – Week 2 Preview

September 8, 2011 5:39 pm
Filed under: College Football Handicapping,Sports Investing

Week 2 is gearing up and we are ready to continue the winning streak we started in Week 1 all the way through the 2011 season!

We’ve never had this many potential plays in Week 2. Ever. We could put out 15 plays that we actually think will all cover. If you know us at all, you know that we don’t like to capp that many games. We could wind up with 10 Recommended Plays. Again, the math has been showing some of the strongest disparities in our numbers vs Vegas’s numbers. This is what we like to call a “perfect storm”. If you sign up for ANY week this year, sign up for week 2. We’ve received 100′s of emails saying that we aren’t traditionally that good in the first few weeks. For those naysayers out there, please take a look at paragraph 3.

Now in our 7^th season as THE premier College Football Handicapping website, TheGeekSheetSports is OVER 67% ATS in weeks 1-4, including an incredible 77-38-2[67% ATS] record in weeks 2-5 historically.

Sign up NOW for one of our packages. Be sure to bundle ours with SundayGuru to maximize your profits. Again, he’s so good, we recruited him for a year. His style and approach is amazing. Read his opinion for tonight’s game below.

As the season progresses, lines WILL get tighter, so don’t miss this opportunity to maximize your winning by staying AHEAD of Vegas.

As with all of our picks, we are certified and verified by Handicappers Watchdog. We play with numbers, but we don’t forge our record like 90% of the other cappers out there.

Check out our site and check out the sites of others. Count how many lists out their entire historical record. Good or bad. Go out and count and you’ll come back to us. Our record will be and always has been on the top of our site. Find that somewhere else.

~The Geek

NFL Sunday Guru

September 7, 2011 10:34 pm
Filed under: College Football Handicapping,Sports Investing,Sunday NFL Guru

What can be better than lighting up your book on Saturday and then firing the kill shot on Sunday? After you bury it on Saturday with the Geek, enjoy your returns and take the lady out for a nice meal or grab some drinks with the guys because TheGeekSheet now does all the work for you. The last thing you should do is fire up the laptop Sunday morning and try to analyze the card on a whim – that’s what bookmakers WANT you to do. You simply can’t win that way. As the new ‘capper here on TheGeekSheet I give you the benefit of my proven methods and how they apply to each selection each and every week. And because I’m new around here, I felt obliged to build your respect and trust by slashing my season package price by more than half to just $175. (and maybe a certain college ball nerd is subsidizing your package a bit). That is a value that lasts all year long and takes care of identifying your winners from Week 1 through the SuperBowl. Last year, I consistently beat the spread and did not lose a single multi-unit NFL recommendation. Not one. I am excited for the opportunity to bring the Geek’s followers many, many more, so sing up today and start winning on Sunday!

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