Week 8 has been released!!!!
TheGeekSheetSports – Now on Facebook!!!
We’re coming off a VERY strong week here at TheGeekSheet and we are excited for more. We have our calculators out, factoring in all the variables for next weeks games, but until then, head over to Facebook and make sure to “Like” our page. This will give you all of TheGeekSheet announcements and content straight to your Facekbook news feed!!! We’re still developing some of our content ideas that will be specific to Facebook such as Audio Podcasts and Video Breakdowns of the weeks biggest match-ups, but rest assured, BIG things are in store!
In addition, we will be running a weekly Facebook FREE Play of the Week that will only be sent out to our Facebook friends. Our FREE play of Boise St. absolutely KILLED it last week so make sure you head over and “Like” us now so you don’t miss out!!!
~The Geek
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5-1 in College Yesterday…
THE MODELS ARE LOCKED IN! 5-1 IN WEEK 6.
WE HAVE OUR FIRST #1 PLAY OF THE YEAR
We have released our 6 Recommended plays for the weekend. We have a #1 Recommended Play. We usually only have about four per year, so it’s a pretty HUGE play.
Sign up and get them all. If it doesn’t hit, you get next week free. Boosh.
Week 5 CFB Recap
It was a pretty good week going 63% (5-3) on our recommended plays (in addition to 3-1 on our free plays!!!). If you are keeping count at home, that is WINNING MONEY 80% of the weeks so far!!! It really could have been a lot better, as two of the three losses (Illinois and Arkansas St) really should have been winners. Such is life, on to the recap!
Northwestern @ Illinois (-9) – Illinois #3 Play
GSS Predicts: Illinois 32 NW 17 (Actual: Illinois 38 NW 35) Loss
Illinois outgained NW 473-329 (we projected 532-283 margin). In addition to being pretty accurate with the production, we were also right on with the yppl (6.8-4.9yppl edge for Illinois compared to a projected edge of 7.0-4.3yppl). Illinois had a 1st quarter INT from the 1 yards line (after driving 71 yards) that erased 3-7 points, and two separate fumbles each of which set up NW on a 35 yard field (converted both into TD). After reviewing the stats and drive logs it is pretty clear to us were on the right side of this game and just got a little unlucky.
Texas Tech (-6.5) @ Kansas – TTU is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: TTU 45 KU 29 (Actual: TTU 45 KU 34) Win
Not only did we nail the score but also called for a TTU production edge of 558-427 (compared to an actual of 530-478). This was a Solid Win all around.
Northern Illinois (-8.5) @ Central Michigan – NIU is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: NIU 45 – CMU 24 (Actual: NIU 41 CMU 48) Loss
This was the one game of the week we really missed; as we were way off on the CMU production (563yds @ 9.4yppl was well higher than our projection of 377@ 5.1).
UNC (-6) @ ECU – UNC is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: UNC 37 ECU 24 (Actual: UNC 35 ECU 20) Win
This was another one that we really nailed the score, but were a little off on the production. We pretty accurately covered UNC with a projection of 454 yds @ 6.9yppl (compared to actual of 456 @ 7.6), but undershot ECU some (projection of 348 @ 4.9yppl compared to actual of 490@ 6.2). Most of that was in the form of a couple 1st half ECU TOs, but given some of the bad breaks the 1st couple weeks (we haven’t been on the beneficiary side of a close win/close loss/Turnover luck game yet). Also after reviewing the production advantages we were clearly on the right side.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-9.5) – Wisconsin is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: Wisc 38 Neb 23 (Actual: Wisc 48 Neb 17) Win
We are pretty happy with this one, and it is always nice when you nail the production to the yard (we projected 486 yds for Wisconsin which is exactly what they gained!), we had them at 7.1 yppl compared to the 6.9 actual, which is pretty amazing all things considered. We projected 306 yds @ 5.1yppl for Nebraska compared to an actual of 335 @ 5.2, which is unbelievably close as well.
Arkansas State (-12.5) @ WKU – ASU is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: ASU 35 WKU 13 (Actual: ASU 26 WKU 22) Loss
ASU outgained WKU by a 444-321 margin (we called for 419-301), so from a production perspective the game went about like we thought it would. What killed us were two ASU drives that ended on the 1 yard line with two missed FGs. Add to that another drive that ended in the redzone with a missed FG and you have worse case 9 points left on the field, and in a more normal outcome distribution probably 17 (two TDs on the 1 yard line possessions and a FG on the one that ended in the redzone). That happens from time to time, but after reviewing the statistics and drive logs feel very confident we were on the right side.
Utah State (+7.5) @ BYU- Utah State is a #3 Play
GSS Predicts: UtSt 28 BYU 23 (Actual: 24 BYU 27) Win
We made a point to note that we thought there was very good support for a Utah State straight up win, and given the odds the ML were implying a money line play was probably warranted. Up 24-13 midway through the 4th and we felt pretty good about that…up 4pts with the ball and 4:00 mins left in the game we felt really good about it…one 3 and out later, and a punt leaving BYU a 96 yard field and 2:30 left and we were feeling better…down to 1:00 and 65 yards left and we were feeling much better…well the last minute, not so much… Very solid win for GSS with UtSt +7.5, but was one we really thought they would win SU, and was as close as you can get to having that occur.
Mississippi State @ UGA (-6.5) – UGA is a #4 Play
GSS Predicts: UGA 37 MSU 23 (Actual: UGA 24 MSU 10) Win
It certainly wasn’t a pretty game, with 6 combined TOs, but in the end actually evened out to slightly favoring Miss St. UGA threw a pick 6 and had another TO on downs after getting the ball on the Miss St 13 via a MSU TO. MSU squandered a UGA TO that set them up on the 28 by throwing a pick to UGA, which UGA returned the favor later in the game by managing only a FG after a MSU TO set them up on the 15. UGA was in total control the entire game and the pick 6 in the 4th made this seem a little closer than it otherwise was. All in all was a little bizarre, but clearly on the right side and was a solid W.
We are getting dialed in and can’t wait til this set of games this weekend. As the season progresses, lines WILL get tighter. Don’t miss this opportunity to maximize your winning by staying AHEAD of Vegas. The Geek is about to tear it up in the coming weeks so SIGN UP NOW!
~The Geek
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