TheGeekSheetSports.com was founded in 2003.  We are dedicated solely to handicapping College Football. It’s 100% of our focus, 52 weeks a year.  It’s what we do and we are the best on the net!

After spending many years tirelessly researching teams, trends, angles, and power ratings — while surveying the litany of “experts” out there and their mostly conflicting and confusing games of the week, games of the month, and games of the year — I realized that one thing was certain: to continue that course of action was to accept consistent losses. I realized there had to be a better way.

Instead of focusing on picking winners by searching out trends and angles, I shifted my focus to accurately determining what the score should be. I refined models which focus on those games with the highest level of reliability in those predictions, then identify which of those games have the largest variance from the current betting line.

I surmised that if I could devise a system to chart the accuracy of these forecasts, I could (relatively speaking) accurately assess the odds of my predictions proving out (when combined with large variances in the lines produces winners).

After identifying those opportunities, we then evaluate where the line values are. We don’t ignore situation analysis, trends, angles, or even common sense. But we make the above assessment the foundation of our research, from which we then focus on the specifics of the game.

We have found this approach to be extremely successful, and are constantly working to refine our methods, and analyze what makes up acceptable alignment of models and variances from line based on the lines themselves.

–The Geek