It was a good week 3 at GSS going 4-2 overall (3-2 on our recommended plays), including near upsets by a couple TD dogs (Hawaii and MTSU) as well as an outright win by Mississippi State as a 9 pt Dog (which we called for 1 out of 3 times). We are certainly not one to complain about a winning week, but it could have been better as we got a little unlucky in the BG game. Marshall ripped off a 1 play 80 yard rush, followed by a BG fumble on their 1st possession (after the kick off) setting Marshall up on BGs 17 (led to a FG). BG totaled 393 yds offense (4.8 yppl which is exactly what we projected), which is near impossible to equate to only 10 pts. That is a Yards per point (yppt) ratio of 39:1…the national average is closer to 15:1 (which would have yielded closer to 24-28 pts). Marshall totaled only 346 yards, if you remove the 80 yard run they totaled only 266 yards (which based on 57 total plays (less the 1 big hitter) yielded 4.67 yppl (we projected 4.7 yppl). Given all this, these teams performed nearly identical to what we expected, and on the average should have yielded a score closer to what we projected. We’ll take some solace in that we were correct in 5 of the 6 games this week (GT being the one we were just wrong on), which for this early on is very encouraging.
Week 4 starts a very exciting time for us as we’ll have 3 meaningful games of data for about 50% of all the teams, and 2 games of meaningful data for nearly every team. We are pretty upfront about the particular challenges our methods face early in the year because of the lack of data from this years team (and as such a heavy reliance on modifications to last year’s performance based on our perception of the impacts the losses will have). That said, we are pretty pleased to enter the meat of the season 9-10 overall. One month in we have adjusted our price for the season, why not save some coin and sign up for the rest of the season? We’ve averaged around 105-135 recommend plays a year (average of about 8/wk from week 4 on), so at $385 that equates to only $3 or $4 bucks per play!! With a 5 year record of 63% that is one heck of a deal no matter what your bankroll is or the size of your average play.
