We were 2-1 on Week 1′s RECOMMENDED Plays. We called for Oklahoma St to blow out Wash State as a 15 pt favorite and cruised to an easy victory 65-17.  We also called for ECU to win straight up as an 8 pt dog and they did just that!  I  went to bed Saturday night feeling pretty good about  Cincinnati (3 pt dog) as mid way thru the 2^nd quarter Cincy was up 14-0, had nearly 200 yards offense, and Fresno had zero 1^st downs and less than 50 yards total offense.  Not sure what happened in the midnight hour but Cincinnati must have fallen asleep also as they didn’t score again and yielded 4 Fresno TDs.

All in all a pretty successful week 1, we said early in the week we really liked how things were shaping up and that proved to be correct!  Our 2-1 Week 1 brings our lifetime record to 257-156-9 (62%). We spent a lot of time this offseason working on our preseason adjustments including implementing a power rating system we have been testing for a couple seasons.  It seems to really be paying off as we have a much more statistically significant metric to accurately adjust last season’s numbers based on this year’s players/coaches.  We expect to drastically increase our accuracy and confidence the 1^st four weeks while we wait on enough data from this season (usually around week 4).  Make sure to check out one of our packages, week 2 is already here!

WEEK 1 RECOMMENDED PLAYS:

1. #2 Recommended Play- Oklahoma State (-17) click for the geeksheet) – 17 point favorite that won by 48 points!!!!!
2. #2 Recommended Play- Cincinnati (+3) click for the geeksheet) – Cincy blew a 14 points lead, as a 3 point dog and ended up losing 14-28.  They pretty much gave up in the 2nd half.  We still feel good about our projections and have no regrets.  Again, the models are really dialed in for being this early on in the season.
3. #3 Recommended Play - ECU (+7) (Click for the geeksheet) – Won SU as a 7 point dog, which we called for!!
   

We’ve already started looking at Week 2, and it is shaping up nicely.  We will keep you posted throughout the week, about the Thursday & Friday night games.

Sign up now, if you haven’t already. We are really excited about this year, and spent more time this off-season than we ever have in the past.  This is the last week to sign up for a SEASON PACKAGE to receive the Bowl Season for FREE!!

The Geek

We have been looking at Week 1 for about a month now, and all we can say is- WOW! What a start to the season, there are 14 pretty decent games, if you get picky 5-8 really good ones.

We are going to start whittling down by nuking games with questionable coaching situations, Qbs, think OL/DL, etc…but I don’t recall a week 1 with this sort of alignment, kind of scary. You know us, we are as conservative as they come, but the models are all agreeing, and I’m liking what I’m seeing.

Be sure to get on board before Friday to get in on the action. If you sign up for a SEASON PACKAGE before Week 2, you will get the Bowl Season for free.

Wager Wisely,

The Geek

The Geek Sheet SEC preview

We only have a few more days until college football kickoff.  We’ve got a few plays for this weekend, so go ahead and sign up, to get in on the action!  If you sign up for a SEASON Package before Week 2, you will receive the Entire Bowl Season for FREE!  Sign up HERE.

Below you’ll find our projections for each SEC team and how that compares to their actual performance last season.  We have two separate projections that we run each off season to predict how a team should perform this upcoming season compared to last season based on a myriad of factors that include stability in the coach staff, returning letterman, returning starters by position, pre-season all Americans, all-conference, percentage of rushing and receiving yards returning, etc.  The analysis is broke down into offensive and defensive projections as well as the net differential (Total Offense – Total Defense).  Not surprisingly UF and Alabama topped that net differential chart last year as well as this year.  From there are projections support most of the consensus projections with Auburn and Arkansas basically a coin flip for #2 in the West and UGA and South Carolina in virtually the same situation in the East.

This is a pretty rudimentary analysis for projecting final results as scheduling becomes a huge factor, particularly in the SEC.  Auburn has a really favorable away schedule drawing the Mississippi’s, Kentucky, and Alabama on the road, as well as avoiding UF in the east rotation.  Arkansas also has a pretty favorable draw avoiding UF in the east, but has difficult road games at South Carolina, UGA, and Auburn.  For that reason we’ll give the Tigers the nod as #2 in the West.  The rest of the West is a bit of a crap shoot, but I do think this will ultimately be Les Miles swan song in Baton Rouge as the Bayou Bengals will grossly underperform again this year, and with the Jeremiah Masoli wildcard in Ole Miss and what appears to be an improving coaching staff in Starkville it might get really ugly for The Hat.  I’ll call for LSU #4, Ole Miss #4, and Miss St #6 but think those teams are a lot closer than people give the Mississippi’s credit for.

I am also going to nod with UGA as the #2 slot in the East, mainly because South Carolina draws the top 3 West teams (Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn), as well as having to travel to Florida.  UGA has a much more favorable draw with road games at Miss St, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Auburn and doesn’t have to face Alabama.  Who knows what to make of the balance of the east, but if I am a betting man I’d put my money on a long road back to prosperity for Tennessee compared to a quick bounce back for the younger Dooley.  I think Kentucky will continue to perform well, and has a pretty decent draw with both the Mississippi schools and Auburn in the east, and gets UGA, South Carolina, and Auburn all at home.  The season finale at Tennessee could ultimately determine who finishes #4.   I’ll Lean with UK #4, UT #5, and Vandy as the cellar dweller.

I think we are in for a pretty exciting year, and with Bama facing a pretty tough road schedule (at Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU) as well as the mid-season UF show down I don’t think it is a cinch for them to win the West (although they are certainly the favorite).  I do think UF cruises in the east, with their only other SEC road games being at Tennessee and Vandy.  In the end I’ll call for UF to beat Bama in Atlanta, and for both teams to be in the National Championship hunt late into the season regardless of who wins the regular season showdown.

Offense

Defense

Net Differential (Total Offense – Total Defense)

We wanted to go ahead and give you guys a look at our early offensive and defense projections for your favorite team for 2010. The following compares 2009 individual team offenses’ and defenses’ to our projected 2010 #’s. This is just some of the science that goes into our handicapping, all for FREE.

Be sure to get on board before next Thursday!

Click below for the excel spreadsheet of all D-1 offensive and defensive 2010 projections:

TheGeekSheet 2010 Projections