Welcome to another college football season here at TheGeekSheetSports. We finished last season with our second best year ever at 68% (52-24-1) on our recommended plays. All of our plays are monitored each year by Cappers Watchdog, so you know we aren’t fudging the numbers. We have had our picks published for the last 4 years, with amazing success. Our overall record is an astounding 63% (215-119-7). We are entering our 5^th year of college football handicapping (5 years of being on the internet, at least) and can’t wait to get started!

For those of you that don’t know about us:

(or see – “Why TheGeekSheet”)

Our system is unlike most College Football Handicappers out there; it’s based on historical and situational analysis. We scrutinize and breakdown every game, each week, while computing the numbers through our 5 different math models that we have created to predict each and every possible outcome of a football game. 68% of the time last year we beat the spread. It works. And it has worked for us for many years. And with our information, we have been able to really work Vegas over. The math is multifaceted and complex….quite frankly it will make your head spin. But we have The Geek as well as some serious math nerds that love this stuff.

Our approach is extremely straightforward. We will tell you when there are flaws with the spread and we will tell you when to keep your money and walk. There are no gimmicks with us. Our methods are real, calculated, and deadly accurate. We built these models for ourselves. We wanted a way to beat the odds and know when to really hammer a spread. Our philosophy hasn’t changed much. We do this relentlessly and love the challenge. Five years ago our buddies urged us to share our plays, so here we are. We can promise you one thing; in an industry wrought with misinformation, absurd claims, dubious personas, and outlandish games of the season, month, week, conference, time of day, etc you’ll find nothing but a honest and thorough breakdown of games based on as accurate an assessment as we can make in a sea of misleading and erroneous information.

Like every year we have spent a lot of the off season analyzing our 5 models and calculations, and have made a few tweaks which we think will produce more consistent and predictable metrics. For the second year in a row, we’ve added yet another team member to GSS. Nick has joined us to help upgrade our databases and analytical models. We are excited to have him here and very excited about the work he is doing to improve the analytical ability of our models and the improved historic data we are able to capture with our database.

As always feel free to drop us a line if you have a question about a specific game or situation, we’re happy to give you our two cents. You may not always like what we have to say, but we can promise it will be founded in sound analysis based on an exhaustive and exacting research.

We wanted to let you guys go ahead and sign up for your season subscription. We are offering our previous members a 10% discount on the Season Subscription. Sign up before the first college football game, Thursday September 3^rd, for only $475. Non-members and subscribers after the first kick-off will have to pay $525. Get in now, and save some cash.

Here’s to the year to come, and a little fun along the way!

For those of you who haven’t taken the time to look at Cappers Watch Dog, you should really check them out. 

Long story short they are a ”Free Sports Handicapper Monitor Service Watching Premium Basketball Baseball Hockey and Football Picks”  Any capper that has ANY credibility at all is monitored by an independent service such as them.  Check out the Top 10 Ranked College Football Handicappers - Season Ranked By Overall Win Percentage.  See a familar name all over the place?  Yeah, that just happened.  Not much more we can say about it.

After having no plays for the season’s final week, we close the regular season at 52-24-1.   While we’d like to have finished over the 70% mark, where we stayed for almost the entire season, we can’t complain about this record.  It’s an improvement over last year and better than the vast majority of our competitors.  So with that said, we hope you’ll take a look at our bowl package and if you’re thinking of moving to an online sportsbook, check out one of our recommended sites, BetJamaica. They’ve been reliable for us all year.

Enjoy the holidays, and we’ll have more here as the bowls approach.

We had another winning week going 5-4 on our recommended plays, which wasn’t as good as we were hoping for, but we’ll never complain about a winning week.  We were also 4-2 on our other plays, so all in all we were pretty happy.  We were for the most part right on all our wins and wrong on all our losses.

You could argue we deserved the Idaho – Hawaii game, considering Hawaii only had 350 yards offense and really only covered because of 4 Idaho TOs, but given we knew that was likely to be an issue we won’t complain too badly.  The BC game was close, but considering BCs starting QB was knocked out in the 1st half and Wake had 2 fumble recoveries returned for TDs I feel pretty confident stating we were on the correct side there as well, and a little unlucky to get in a position like that where we got a little lucky (if you can follow that?!?).

We are now 52-24-1 on the season (68%).  Check out some of our year end and bowl packages, we’ve got some pretty good deals.

Here is the summary of our picks this week:

Summary of Recommended plays

1. UNC -11 (#2) -L
2. Boston College +2 (#2) - W
3. Indiana +11 (#3) -L
4. Penn State -15 (#3) -W
5. Clemson -2.5 (#3) -W
6. NMSU +7 (#4) -W
7. Idaho +24 (#4) -L
8. Texas Tech +7 (#4) -L
9. Duke +17 – #4 – W

Other Selections

1. ECU-6.5 -L
2. Ole Miss +5 - W
3. Cal -9 -W
4. Toledo – 3 (FRIDAY NIGHT GAME) -W
5. ULL +8 -L
6. Texas Tech / Oklahoma over 75 -W

We suffered only our second losing week this week going just 1-2-1 on our 4 recommended plays. 

1. Oklahoma State- won by just 13 despite outgaining Buffalo 443-304 yards, and was largely because of a freak tipped pass TD for Colorado and a late Oklahoma State interception that set Colorado up with a 16 yard field.  Take any one of those away and we cover.  Our projections called for 457 yards for Oklahoma State and 306 yards for Colorado, so we were dead on, and had we not had any of the above or had OSU converted one of their 3 FGs to TDs we would have been scarily close to our projection of 39-15.  Despite the loss I feel 100% confident we were on the correct side in this game.
2. New Mexico got whipped pretty good 20-6 despite only being outgained by 30 yards.  Still the key to this game was NM getting on track rushing the football and that didn’t really happen (only 153 on the game), although they did average 5.5 ypr.
3. Illinois – We pushed this one, but it took a comical run of errors for us not to win this game, including:
   1. A fumble by quarterback Juice Williams on the 19 setting OSU up with a 19 yard field.
   2. A blocked punt for a safety
   3. an interception in the red zone effectively erasing 3 or 7 points
   4. A punt and kickoff into the wind that went nowhere, giving the Buckeyes great field position (5 of 12 OSU’s possessions started in Illinois territory or within 5 yards of the 50)
   5. Illinois had 298 yards offense at half, and 455 total (They outgained OSU 454-354), but was outscored by 10.
   6. We were pretty dead on with our analysis and projections and just suffered some horrible luck.

 
So in a week where we went 1-2-1, we easily could have been 3-1, and should have been atleast 2-2.  We’ll take some solace that we were dead on in our analysis of 3 games, and our 4^th wasn’t near as bad as the score might have otherwise indicated.  We are still 47-20-1 this season on our recommended plays, which is an incredible feat (right at 70%).

SIGN UP FOR OUR 4 RECOMMENDED PLAYS for the weekend.  All games kick off tomorrow, but get on board now.

We will continue to be selective as we have all year and will finish out the year strong.  I don’t believe we have mentioned it yet, but our record is 46-18 - 72%ATS.  You won’t find a better record out there.  Not an honest one at least!

As we have said all along; we are the best handicappers on the net.  We have nothing to hide, and will always talk about our record.  It’s gonna be a great end to the year….